The future of food production in 12 charts

With global population headed toward 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100, agriculture has its work cut out for it. More people will be living in cities in the decades ahead, foretelling a move toward diets richer in energy, salt, fat and sugar as higher urban incomes boosts consumption of processed food.

As gross domestic products grow worldwide, the gaps between high- and low-income countries are projected to shrink. This will boost demands on agriculture as more money becomes available for buying food and more discretionary income makes room for diets richer in meat and dairy products.

Expansion of farmland has leveled off in recent years. However, agriculture still is responsible for about 80 percent of deforestation around the world. The disappearance of forests, in turn, poses threats to drinking water supplies, biodiversity and climate.

Global climate change is expected to bring more droughts, floods and variability in crop yield in the decades ahead. A synthesis of 1,090 studies of changes in yields of wheat, corn, rice, soybeans and other crops points to a dramatic range of possible impacts, including both yield increases and yield declines. The overall trend, however, appears to be toward reduced yield, with the most severe harm in low-latitude, poorer countries.

The world saw a tripling in agricultural productivity between 1961 and 2011, thanks in large part to the Green Revolution. However, growth in yields of major crops has slowed in recent years, and a number of variables — including climate change, technological and natural resource limitations — and inadequate funding threaten our future ability to keep pace. The FAO report suggests that public policy, investment and public-private partnerships are needed to keep yield growth on track for meeting future needs.

As people and products move around the world, so do the pests and pathogens that plague crops. Already, insects and other pests claim a 20 to 40 percent share of the crops we produce worldwide, and the FAO report calls the growing ability of diseases and pests to breach borders “alarming.” As with human disease, the best medicine is prevention. Other options for stemming the loss include surveillance, improved pest management techniques, collaboration among countries and advanced preparation before problems arise.

Since 1980, agriculture globally has been harmed by more frequent and intense natural disasters. In particular, the average annual number of severe storms has doubled while floods have more than tripled. Given agriculture’s need for predictable rainfall, the trends are worrying.

When it comes to greenhouse gas emissions, not all food is created equal. Vegetarian and pescatarian diets have significantly lower carbon dioxide emissions than diets in which pork, poultry and beef are frequently on the menu. As the chart shows, food’s impact on the environment is likely to become more pronounced in coming decades as more people move into the middle class and shift to meat-based diets.

The World Bank estimates we’ll need some 600 million more jobs by 2030 if we want to maintain 2013 employment rates. This is especially true in Asia and Africa, where most young people will live in coming decades. The FAO report highlights four pathways for young people to enter the labor market: work full time on the family farm, work part time on the farm and also work in off-farm household enterprises, do agriculture-related work for pay, and work full time in off-farm household enterprises.

One of the greatest trends reshaping the world is increasing urbanization. As more and more people move into cities, options for where to purchase food are expanding, too. Large supermarkets dominate North America, while more traditional markets are common venues for purchasing produce in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.

Nearly one-third of all food produced globally each year is either lost or wasted. In sub-Saharan Africa, most food loss occurs during harvest and post-harvest (e.g., storage and transport). The issue is rising in global concern, though, and reducing food loss and waste have been a focus of both the U.N. secretary general and the 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development in recent years.