Solving many of the world’s biggest environmental challenges may have just gotten more difficult.
In June the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat released revised global population data. The midline estimate — more than 10.8 billion by 2100 — is 800 million higher than the 2010 prediction.
A combination of factors is driving the number higher, including upward trending fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia and an increase in life expectancy at birth across much of the world.
A deeper dive into the data yields a number of surprising discoveries. India’s population is expected to pass that of China’s around 2028, making it the most populous country in the world. Nigeria is predicted to pass the U.S. in population by 2050 and may rival China for the second most populous country in the world by century’s end. And by 2100 the list of countries with populations exceeding 200 million could grow to include Indonesia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Uganda and Niger.
Today’s rural-to-urban migration will continue in full force, with upwards of 84 percent of the planet living in cities at the close of the century (compared to 52 percent today).
While 10.8 billion is the midpoint projection for the global population by 2100, the report notes that the actual number could be as low as 6.8 billion or as high as 16.6 billion.
Of course population isn’t the only factor contributing to humans’ planetary impact. Consumption may be equally important when looking at the drivers of environmental change across the Earth. Nevertheless, population will continue to be a major consideration as we work to address issues ranging from energy and food security to water availability, species loss, pollution, urban planning and more in the decades ahead.
If today's fertility rates were to remain unchanged, world population would soar way past even the UN's high scenario. Better news is we could actually avoid even reaching the middle scenario's 10.8 billion, which we all-too-often assume is a fait accompli. All we have to do is end the taboo on discussing overpopulation and get serious about spreading the word that choosing to have a small family is the only responsible, loving choice on a full planet (while continuing to fight for gender equity and access to contraception).
Dave Gardner
Director of the documentary
GrowthBusters: Hooked on Growth
Another factor is energy decine & water supply access which by 2050 will be pronounced and producing/worsening inter-state conflicts globally, more extreme than the instances witnessed in Egypt & Syria.
It doesnt seem to me like an awakening will occur that both of these factors can be dealt with ahead of time by reduced energy use and reaching replacement or below replacement by choice, we're likely to sleepwalk into and exacerbate these factors which will curb our population growth perhaps to around 8-9bn
This is the ultimate catch 22. Sacrifice (plan) now or sacrifice later.
Here is how Africa could manage its future population.
Green efficient infrastructure
Village & City Farm fishing
Restoration of the Desert (Look up Great Green Wall of Africa)
Large learning centers (colleges/trade school)
Chicken Farms
Organized City Planning
So stop being Cowards & go after the nasty corporations that pollute the Earth. I truly believe Africa could be a role model for the world if its done right!
All this silly overpopulation crap can be answered by simply giving the children an opportunity to get an education (Literacy)
& not just sex education!